Does getting a provisional waiver mean that my immigrant visa will for sure be granted?

No, having your provisional unlawful presence waiver approved doesn’t necessarily mean that you will have your immigrant visa approved. The waiver only waives unlawful presence, so if you have any other reason to be denied a visa, such as a criminal conviction, fraud, a removal order, you could be denied when you’re at the consulate. You have to be certain before leaving the country that the only reason that you could be denied a visa is for unlawful presence.